Breathing RoomFor real estate professionals
Prospecting StrategyWeek of October 12, 2026 · a script, the full monthly cost, a ten-year picture, who to call, and a renter text
Lease Ending Next Spring? See the Whole Picture Before You Renew
Many renters decide whether to stay long before their lease actually ends, because most leases require notice. Here’s a script, the full monthly cost of owning in Raleigh, what owning can build over ten years, who to call this week, and a short text for renters.
The script
For social, email, or a client conversation
If you rent in the Triangle, the most important date on your lease probably isn’t the day it ends. Many leases ask you to give 30 to 60 days’ notice, and a lot of them end in late spring and summer, so plenty of renters will make the stay-or-go call in the next few months. Before you sign again, it’s worth seeing the whole picture.
Here’s an honest one. The average two-bedroom apartment in Raleigh rents for about $1,660 a month. A median-priced Raleigh condo of about $320,000 with 5 percent down would run about $2,750 a month all in, counting taxes, insurance, HOA dues and mortgage insurance. That’s about $1,100 more than rent today, and I’d rather you hear that from me up front.
So why do people buy? Not to save money this year. They buy for a home that’s theirs, a principal and interest payment that stays the same for 30 years instead of resetting at every renewal, and a growing share of each payment that stays with them. With many sellers willing to cover a buyer’s closing costs right now, your 5 percent down payment doesn’t disappear. It becomes part of your equity on day one. If Raleigh home prices grew at a slightly below-typical pace by their own history, you could have close to $190,000 in equity after ten years. That’s history, not a promise, but it shows what time can do.
If you’ve been going back and forth, that’s normal. The real question isn’t whether owning costs less this month. It’s where you want to be in five or ten years, and whether you’d rather that money keep building something of your own. If your lease ends next spring or summer, send me a message and I’ll put together the numbers for your situation with my lender partner, Patrick Gallagher at Exhale Lending.
The full monthly cost
A $320,000 Raleigh condo with 5 percent down, as of early October 2026
| Figure | What it shows |
|---|---|
| $1,660 a month | Average two-bedroom apartment rent in Raleigh in September (RentCafe) |
| $320,000 | Median Raleigh condo sale price in August (Homes.com) |
| $16,000 | The 5 percent down payment on a conventional loan. It isn’t spent; it becomes the owner’s equity. |
| $0 in closing costs | An assumption: the seller covers the buyer’s closing costs and prepaid items. Many sellers are open to this right now, but it isn’t guaranteed, and how much a seller can contribute depends on the loan. |
| 7.40% | Average 30-year fixed rate in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey last Thursday. An index reading, not a quote. |
| About $2,105 | Principal and interest, fixed for 30 years |
| About $242 | Property taxes, using Wake County’s 53.71 cents and Raleigh’s 37.2 cents per $100 of value |
| About $57 | Condo insurance (Insurance.com’s average for Raleigh) |
| About $250 | HOA dues. An assumption: typical North Carolina dues run about $200 to $300 a month, and every building is different. |
| About $100 | Mortgage insurance, an estimate for strong credit. It costs more with lower scores, and it doesn’t last forever (see below). |
| About $2,750 a month | The all-in monthly cost, about $1,100 more than the average rent today |
| About $2,860 | Loan balance paid down in the first year, money that stays with the owner |
What owning can build over ten years
A historical scenario, not a prediction
This uses two growth rates taken from history, each set a little below its typical pace. Home prices grow 3.5 percent a year: in every ten-year stretch since 1990, Raleigh-area prices grew faster than that a little more than half the time (FHFA house price index for Raleigh-Cary). Rent grows 3.1 percent a year, measured the same way with the national rent index (Bureau of Labor Statistics, rent of primary residence), and the owner’s taxes, insurance and HOA dues rise at that same pace. The last column compares the owner with a renter in the same place: the owner’s equity after paying 6 percent to sell, minus the down payment and every dollar paid above rent along the way.
| Year | Monthly rent | Owner’s monthly cost | Equity | Owner vs. renter, after selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1,660 | About $2,760 | About $30,000 | Behind by about $19,000 |
| 3 | About $1,765 | About $2,790 | About $60,000 | Behind by about $15,000 |
| 5 | About $1,875 | About $2,725 | About $93,000 | Behind by about $7,500 |
| 7 | About $1,995 | About $2,765 | About $128,000 | Ahead by about $7,500 |
| 10 | About $2,185 | About $2,830 | About $188,000 | Ahead by about $40,000 |
Notice how the gap between rent and the owner’s monthly cost shrinks from about $1,100 to about $650. The principal and interest never changes, and mortgage insurance comes off around year five, once the home’s value lets the owner ask the lender to remove it. Today’s rent figures also mostly reflect leases signed before mortgage rates moved up. When fewer people can afford to buy, more of them keep renting, which tends to put upward pressure on rents over time, though Raleigh’s recent wave of new apartments can soften that for a while. This leaves out tax effects, which depend on each household, and anything the renter might earn by investing the down payment instead. Real results will differ.
One more idea
Buying rewards people who plan to stay
In this scenario, owning pulls ahead of renting around year seven, mostly because the cost of selling takes a big bite out of short stays. When a renter tells you they expect to stay put for a while, that’s the moment to show them this page.
Who to call this week
The renters are already in your contacts
- Buyers who went quiet. Anyone you showed homes to in the last two years who didn’t buy is probably still renting.
- Friends and family who rent. You likely know who they are. Ask when their renewal notice is due.
- Your past clients’ circles. Ask homeowners you’ve helped who in their life is renting and wondering about buying.
- Buyers you referred for pre-approval who haven’t bought. Ask Patrick to reach back out to them. With their okay, he’ll loop you in.
- A local insurance agent. Every renters policy they write belongs to someone who rents today and will need a homeowners policy when they buy. Offer to co-host a first-time buyer evening, with each of you inviting your own clients.
The renter text
Ready to send
Renter text
“Hi [First Name], before your lease renewal comes around this spring, would it help to see what owning could look like for you? It usually costs more each month at first, but the principal and interest stays the same instead of going up every year, and part of every payment builds equity you keep. I’m happy to put the numbers side by side.”
A note from Patrick: Send me anyone whose lease ends next spring or summer. I’ll run their real numbers, all in, including taxes, insurance, HOA dues and mortgage insurance, show them what owning can build over time, and give them an honest answer, even if it’s “not yet.” If a seller is willing to help with closing costs, I’ll show them how to put that help to work. If you’ve sent me buyers who were pre-approved but haven’t bought, ask me about them. With their okay, I’ll reach back out with you.
Prepared for you by Patrick Gallagher, Founder & Mortgage Broker · Exhale Lending
(984) 208-1113 · info@exhalelending.com · exhalelending.com · 1135 Kildaire Farm Road, Suite 200, Cary, NC 27511
Exhale Lending, LLC · Company NMLS #2493601 · Patrick Gallagher NMLS #1495210 · Licensed in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida. Equal Housing Opportunity. Any rate or market references are general information, not offers or commitments to lend. Actual rates and terms depend on credit, down payment, loan type, and property, and are subject to underwriting approval. For real estate professionals’ use.
Exhale Lending is a mortgage brokerage firm that embodies trust, transparency, and a genuine desire to help clients achieve financial serenity. With our client-centric approach, expertise, and unwavering commitment to excellence, Exhale Lending is poised to make a meaningful impact on the journey towards homeownership for individuals and families alike.
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Exhale Lending, L.L.C.
Equal Housing Opportunity
Office Location
Cary, NC 27511